Comments on: Moore’s Law and the Dangers of Generalization http://blog.copyrightalliance.org/2009/07/moores-law-and-the-dangers-of-generalization/ Copyright Information Tue, 28 Jun 2011 19:02:36 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Michael http://blog.copyrightalliance.org/2009/07/moores-law-and-the-dangers-of-generalization/#comment-25584 Michael Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:03:46 +0000 http://blog.copyrightalliance.org/?p=478#comment-25584 Michio Kaku is a pretty smart cookie, so I suspect his quote was meant to be more provocative than predictive. Certainly, if quantum computing becomes a reality, size limitations will be circumvented for another generation. But as for Patrick's main thrust that Chris Anderson overgeneralizes, I think that's true, uh, generally. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb has pointed out, the long tail has been oversold big-time. Most of the goodies in the world go those points on the graph that mathematicians might label label strange attractors, but we know as corporate fat cats. Nothing exceeds like excess. I started my career as a musician playing my violin on the street. I would be awfully disappointed to end it that way, even though it might make Chris Anderson happy. Michio Kaku is a pretty smart cookie, so I suspect his quote was meant to be more provocative than predictive. Certainly, if quantum computing becomes a reality, size limitations will be circumvented for another generation. But as for Patrick’s main thrust that Chris Anderson overgeneralizes, I think that’s true, uh, generally. As Nassim Nicholas Taleb has pointed out, the long tail has been oversold big-time. Most of the goodies in the world go those points on the graph that mathematicians might label label strange attractors, but we know as corporate fat cats. Nothing exceeds like excess. I started my career as a musician playing my violin on the street. I would be awfully disappointed to end it that way, even though it might make Chris Anderson happy.

]]> By: Patrick Ross http://blog.copyrightalliance.org/2009/07/moores-law-and-the-dangers-of-generalization/#comment-25077 Patrick Ross Fri, 24 Jul 2009 18:22:23 +0000 http://blog.copyrightalliance.org/?p=478#comment-25077 Without getting too much in the weeds, if you read his book you'll see he's quite on top of modern advances in microprocessing. His issue is with silicon chips, and how it is advances in that field that has been behind Moore's Law. Also, as I noted in the blog, he cites Kelvin; in fact, the quote you list there is duplicated exactly at the start of Chapter 3, "Phasers and Death Stars." In fact, as I didn't properly explain this, the entire premise of the book is that much of the fantastic things imagined in science fiction that scientists say may be flat-out impossible might be probable given the right advances and circumstances, thus the name, "Physics of the Impossible." You've produced an amazing list of misguided predictions here, I suspect you'd really enjoy Professor Kaku's book. Without getting too much in the weeds, if you read his book you’ll see he’s quite on top of modern advances in microprocessing. His issue is with silicon chips, and how it is advances in that field that has been behind Moore’s Law. Also, as I noted in the blog, he cites Kelvin; in fact, the quote you list there is duplicated exactly at the start of Chapter 3, “Phasers and Death Stars.”

In fact, as I didn’t properly explain this, the entire premise of the book is that much of the fantastic things imagined in science fiction that scientists say may be flat-out impossible might be probable given the right advances and circumstances, thus the name, “Physics of the Impossible.” You’ve produced an amazing list of misguided predictions here, I suspect you’d really enjoy Professor Kaku’s book.

]]> By: Nick http://blog.copyrightalliance.org/2009/07/moores-law-and-the-dangers-of-generalization/#comment-25074 Nick Fri, 24 Jul 2009 17:50:28 +0000 http://blog.copyrightalliance.org/?p=478#comment-25074 Kaku's quote sounds like another great one to add to this list once we have five-atom-across microprocessors. "Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax." -William Thomson, Lord Kelvin English scientist, 1899 "While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility." -Lee DeForest, inventor "The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives." -Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project. "I think there's a world market for about five computers." -Thomas J. Watson, chairman of the board of IBM. "Who wants to hear actors talk?" -H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927. "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication." -Western Union memo, 1876 Kaku’s quote sounds like another great one to add to this list once we have five-atom-across microprocessors.

“Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax.”
-William Thomson, Lord Kelvin English scientist, 1899

“While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility.”
-Lee DeForest, inventor

“The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives.”
-Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.

“I think there’s a world market for about five computers.”
-Thomas J. Watson, chairman of the board of IBM.

“Who wants to hear actors talk?”
-H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.”
-Western Union memo, 1876

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